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DA from July 2014 estimated to be 107% – AICPIN for May 2014 released

DA from July 2014 estimated to be 107% – Dearness Allowance with effect from July 2014 can be fixed at 106% only if AICPIN decreases to the tune of 2 points or more which is unlikely

We have All India Consumer Price Index for the months of July 2013 to May 2014 declared officially by Labour Bureau. As GConnect predicted in the month of April 2014 (Scenario 1), the likely DA from July 2014 payable to all Central Government Employees and Pensioners is estimated to be 107%, viz., an increase of 7% from the present DA of 100%.

This estimation is based on the presumption that AICPI (IW) / AICPIN for the month of June 2014 is either unchanged (compared to CPI for the month of May 2014 which is 244) or there is one point decrease viz., AICPI (IW) at 243.

If AICPIN for June 2014 will be is unchanged:

Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+244)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76

= 107 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)

If AICPIN for June 2014 gets decreased by 1 point

Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+243)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76

= 107 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)

However, if all India consumer price index gets decreased in the month of June 2014 to the tune of 2 points or more, then DA from July 2014 is estimated to be 106%. However, this scenario is unlikely, considering the present inflationary trend

If all India consumer price index gets decreased in the month of June 2014 to the tune of 2 points or more

Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+242)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76

= 106 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)

On the higher side, DA from July 2014 is estimated at 108% only if AICPIN for the month of June 2014 increases to 257 or more which is also unlikely.

If all India Consumer Price Index gets increased in the month of June 2014 to the tune of 13 points or more

Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+240+242+244+257)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76

= 108 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)

 

Month Actual AICPI-IW
July 2013 235
Aug 2013 237
Sep 2013 238
Oct 2013 241
Nov 2013 243
Dec 2013 239
Jan 2014 237
Feb-2014 238
Mar-2014 239
Apr-2014 242
May 2014 244
Jun 2014 Yet to be released

Note : The above calculation of DA from July 2014, is only an estimation. Actual DA rate with effect from July 2014 will be announced by Government in the month of September or October 2014

Also read our earlier estimation of DA from July 2014 – DA from July 2014 will be either 106% or 107% – Estimation

Readers can easily verify the DA estimation made using the GConnect DA Calculator given below

 

Press Release issued by Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour and Employment on announcement of All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of May 2014

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – May, 2014
No. 5/1/2014- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU
`CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: the 30th June, 2014
Press Release
Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – May, 2014
The All-India CPI-IW for May, 2014 increased by 2 points and pegged at 244 (two hundred and forty four). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.83 per cent between April, 2014 and May, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.88 per cent between the same two months a year ago.
The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 1.65 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Coconut Oil, Fish Fresh, Poultry, Milk, Onion, Vegetables & Fruits, Sugar, Cigarette, Electricity Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Petrol putting downward pressure on the index.
The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 7.02 per cent for May, 2014 as compared to 7.08 per cent for the previous month and 10.68 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.66 per cent against 7.76 per cent of the previous month and 13.24 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.
At centre level, Coimbatore recorded the maximum increase of 9 points followed by Bhavnagar (7 points) and Amritsar, Mercara and Tiruchirapally (6 points each). Among others, 5 points rise was registered in 7 centres, 4 points in 11 centres, 3 points in 13 centres, 2 points in 11 centres and 1 point in 10 centres. On the contrary, a decline of 5 points was reported in Giridih, 4 points in Chhindwara, 3 points in 2 centres, 2 points in 1 centre and I point in 7 centres. Indices of remaining 9 centres observed no change.
The indices of 35 centres are above and other 41 centres are below national average. The index of Vishakhapathnam and Chandigarh is at par with all-India index.
The next index of CPI-1W for the month of June, 2014 will be released on Thursday, 31 July, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website WWW.labourbureau.gov. in.
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