AICPI (IW) for March 2014 released – Expected DA from July 2014

AICPI (IW) for March 2014 released – One Point increase in Consumer Price Index – Expected DA from July 2014

GConnect has recently estiamted the expected DA from July 2014 for Central Government Employees and Pensioners based on CPI (IW) in the following article
Check this article : DA from July 2014 will be either 106% or 107% – Estimation
We could see that in the march 2014, trend in CPI is similar to the one we have discussed in Scenario 2 of our DA Estimation. If this trend continues, DA from July 2014 of Central Government Employees is poised to reach 106%.

The possibility of DA from July 2014 reaching 107% can not be rules out if there is two point increase in CPI (IW) in the months of April, May and June 2014 (Scenario 1)

Month Actual AICPI-IW
July 2013 235
Aug 2013 237
Sep 2013 238
Oct 2013 241
Nov 2013 243
Dec 2013 239
Jan 2014 237
Feb-2014 238
Mar-2014 239
Apr-2014 Yet to be released
May 2014 Yet to be released
Jun 2014 Yet to be released

Scenario 1 – More Inflation in the coming months

Month expected CPI (IW)
Apr-2014 241
May 2014 243
Jun 2014 245

Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+239+241+243+245)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76

= 107 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)

Scenario 2 – Inflation at the same level recorded in the month of March 2014

Month expected CPI (IW)
Apr-2014 240
May 2014 241
Jun 2014 242

Estimated DA from July 2014 = ((235+237+238+241+243+239+237+238+239+240+241+242)/12)-115.76)*100/115.76

= 106 % (Rounded to nearest Integer at the lower side)

Note : The above calculation of DA from July 2014, is only an estimation. Actual DA rate with effect from July 2014 will be announced by Government in the month of September or October 2014

GConnect DA Calculator to estimate DA from July 2014

DA Estimation for different scenarios can be easily made using the following DA Calculator. This Tool is most popular among Central Government Employees and Pensioners to estimate Dearness Allowance.

The following is the official prress release of Minsitry of Labour and Employment on Consumer Price Index for the Month of March 2014

Press Information Bureau

Government of India
Ministry of Labour & Employment
30-April-2014 19:02 IST

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW)- March 2014
According to a press release issued by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & Employment the All-India CPI-IW for March, 2014 increased by 1 points and pegged at 239 (two hundred and thirty nine). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.42 per cent between February, 2014 and March, 2014 compared with the rise of 0.45 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food Group contributing 0.99 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Wheat, Goat Meat, Milk (Buffalo), Vegetables and Fruit items, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Groundnut Oil, Fish Fresh, Poultry, Eggs (Hen), Onion, etc. putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 6.70 per cent for March, 2014, as compared to 6.73 per cent for the previous month and 11.44 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.50 per cent against 13.21 per cent of the previous month and 14.98 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Bokaro recorded the highest increase of 8 points each followed by Godavarikhani & Chhindwada (7 Points each), Rangapara Tezpur (6 points) and Kanpur & Durgapur (5 points each). Among others, 4 points rise was registered in 7 centres, 3 points in 6 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 points in 22 centres. On the contrary, Quilon and Guwahati reported a decline of 5 points each followed by Coimbatore (3 points), 2 points in 3centres and 1 point in 6 centres. Indices of 16 centres observed no change.

The indices of 36 centres are above All-India Index and other 41 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Tiruchirapally centre remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of April, 2014 will be released on Friday, 30 May, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website
Source: PIB

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